盘面观察

　　Disk observation

　　指数——触底反弹

　　Index - bottomed out

　　截至昨日收盘，上证指数收报2735点，跌0.52%；中小板指收报6256点，跌0.77%；创业板指收报1997点，涨0.17%。

　　As of yesterday, the Shanghai composite index closed at 2735 points, down 0.52%. Small and medium-sized plate refers to closed at 6256 points, down 0.77%; The gem refers to 1997 points, up 0.17%.

　　大盘昨天又玩了次心跳，中午收盘时愁云惨淡，下午收盘时已是阳光灿烂。估计很多早盘忍痛割肉的朋友收盘直骂“艹”，尼玛不带这么玩的，刚割完就反弹。

　　The market play beats again yesterday, closing at noon fraught, ended in the afternoon was sunny. Estimates that a lot of early cut meat friend close straight sCold \"acutely, nima without such a play, just finished cut and then rebounded.

　　量能——基本持平

　　Quantity can - basically unchanged

　　沪深两市全天合计成交5102亿元，与上个交易日相比减少129亿元。大盘最近两个交易日的成交金额都维持在5000亿元之上，表明筹码开始交换，如果能够形成放量上涨的局面，对恢复市场信心会有很大帮助。

　　Shanghai and shenzhen two cities throughout the total volume of 510.2 billion yuan, compared with the last trading day of 12.9 billion yuan. The market recent two days to maintain above 500 billion yuan, clinch a deal amount that chip began to exchange, if you can form in the situation of rising volumes, will be of great help to restore market confidence.

　　技术——单针探底

　　Technology, single needle bottom

　　大盘前天收盘还在2749点，昨天午盘就见到了2638点，市场疲软程度可见一斑。然而午后风云突变，指数出现了强劲反抽，收盘留下了“单针探底”的看涨K线形态。

　　The market the day before yesterday closed at 2749 points, also yesterday afternoon to see 2638 points, a weak market. Afternoon a sixpence, however, index appeared a strong rally, closed left a \"single needle bottom\" bullish K line form.

　　大盘昨天收出单针探底的看涨形态　　那么，这根单针探底的K线是否管用呢？如果从短线跌幅来看，大盘在短短一个月的时间内跌去了1000点，应该是够了。但考虑到大盘昨天刚刚用坡底长阴的方式杀破了长达5个月的大箱体，中线趋势还是不容乐观。

　　The broader market yesterday closed out the single needle bottom bullish pattern So, this single needle bottom whether the K line of work? If from the point of short term decline, the market in a short span of a month's time lost 1000 points, should be enough. But given the broader market yesterday with bottom long Yin big box is broken for five months, the central tendency is not optimistic.

　　在前天的笔记中，我说大盘还存有最后一线生机：未来72小时，多头必须强势反扑，吃掉昨天这根阴线，这也是最后的救援机会。

　　In notes the day before yesterday, I said that the market still have one last chance: the next 72 hours, the bull must be strong kickback, eat this Yin line yesterday, this also is the final rescue opportunities.

　　请记住，昨天过后，黄金救援时间还剩48小时。

　　Remember, yesterday after the golden relief with 48 hours.

　　消息——外围市场转暖

　　- outside market

　　隔夜美股强劲上扬，吃掉了上一个交易日的中阴线，这给全球股市的投资者带来信心。如果美股昨晚继续反攻，相信原本极度悲观的A股投资人，看空情绪也会有所缓和。

　　Overnight U.S. stocks rallied strongly, eaten on a day in the Yin line, it brings to the global stock market investor confidence. If U.S. stocks continue to counter-attack last night, I believe originally extreme pessimism a-share investors, bearish sentiment will be eased.

　　后市推演

　　Afternoon deduction

　　市场永远不会按照你所设想的剧本去演绎。

　　Market will never according to what you imagine the script to deduce.

　　昨天收盘后，相信和我一样悲观的人占到了绝大多数。即便昨晚央妈再次 ，即便隔夜美股出现暴涨，还是有相当数量的投资者无视这些利好，开盘后的操作只有一个字：抛，因为他们相信，A股彻底玩完了。

　　After the close yesterday, and I do believe that pessimistic people accounted for the majority. Even central mother and money again last night, even if the overnight U.S. stocks exploded,bataopjcpz.com.there are quite A number of investors to ignore the positive opening after the operation is only one WORD: throw, because they believe that, a-share market completely over.

　　在这种情绪的作用下，大盘昨天上午又迎来一波暴跌，很多人开始不计成本地抛售。但出人意料的是，大盘午后居然反弹了。

　　Under the action of this kind of mood, the broader market yesterday morning and usher in a wave of slump, many people start at no cost to sell. But surprisingly, the broader the afternoon had bounced back.

　　从盘面来看，妖股中毅达，扮演了反弹急先锋的角色，两点左右强势封住涨停，稳住了市场人气，并带动了主动性买盘入场抄底。

　　From the disk, yi da ghost shares, rebound played a vanguard role, around two o 'clock a strong seal harden, stabilize the market sentiment, and led to the initiative and buying into bottom.

　　妖股到底是妖股　　应该怎样理解市场的反弹呢？在我看来，昨天的反弹主要源自于超跌后的技术性修复。一个月撸掉1000点，跌得实在太猛了，总要反抽一下的吧。

　　Demon is demon shares how should understand the market rebound? In my opinion, mainly derived from yesterday's rebound in fall after the technical repair. Lu fell 1000 points, a month to fall too fierce, total want to rally the.

　　但是，历史上有很多重要的低点，恰恰就是在技术性反抽之后自然形成的。问题是，2638点是不是这样一个具有标志性意义的低点呢？

　　However, history has many important low, is naturally formed after technical against smoking. The problem is that 2638 is such a symbolic low?

　　要解决这个问题，让我们采用一下反证法。从右侧交易者的角度出发，我们先假定2638点是一个重要低点，那么之后会发生什么呢？

　　To solve this problem, let us use the reduction to absurdity. From the perspective of the right side of the traders, we first assume that 2638 is an important low, then what will happen after?

　　首先，大盘短期不该再创新低；其次，大盘会在未来两个交易日重返5天均线，且反包掉1月26日的中阴线；随后，大盘会形成一个主流热点，带领其他板块向上反弹。

　　First of all, the market short-term shouldn't to new lows; Second, the market will be in the next two days to return to the average five days and FanBao off on January 26, Yin line; Then, the market will form a major hot spots, lead other plate upward rebound.

　　只要上述三个条件只要无法同时满足，自然就能证伪“2638点是阶段性低点”这一命题。

　　As long as the above three conditions can't meet at the same time, the nature can be falsified \"2638 points is periodic lows\" this proposition.

　　所以，未来的策略就变得很简单。今明两天是重要观察期，如果大盘注定无法在此止跌，三大条件必定无法同时触发；但反过来，如果三大条件全部符合，或许能触发熊市中的一波难得的阶段性反弹行情。

　　So, the future strategy becomes very simple. The next day or two is an important observation period, if the market is not in this stop falling, three conditions must be unable to trigger at the same time; But on the other hand, if the three conditions all conform to, perhaps can trigger a wave of rare staged rallies in a bear market.